以前騰訊的PE長期維在30-40以上,當時是合理的,但現在這個數字仍然合理嗎?銀行股的PE長期在個位數字又是否便宜?當打開股票報價Apps時,都會接觸到PE、PEG同PB,究竟它們是什麼意思?對買賣一隻股票有什麼幫助?
巿盈率:PE (Price Earnings ratio)
巿盈率 = 股價 / 每股盈利
假設你付出了100元買一間餐廳,而餐廳每年的盈利是10元,基本上預計用10年時間就可以回本。
如用這個例子對比起巿盈率:
股價 = 100元、每股盈利 = 10元,而巿盈率 = 100 / 10 = 10
巿盈率反映了投資的回本期長短,當然數值越小越好(但要留意是否巿場對公司的未來沒有信心)。而巿盈率亦可分為「往績巿盈率」和「預測巿盈率」,平時在AASTOCKS看到的是「往績巿盈率」,意思是用去年的盈利計算出來。不過股票是買公司將來的業績,所以需要估算「預測巿盈率」,即是運用今年的數據來預測未來的盈利。而怎樣預測未來的盈利就需要下點功夫,而且亦不會完全準確。
巿盈增長率:PEG
巿盈增長率 = 巿盈率 / 每股盈利增長率
例如巿盈率 = 12,而每股盈利增長率 = 20% 巿盈增長率 = 12 / 20 = 0.6
如果用過去一年的PE計算,盈利增長率就要用今年、明年、後年的平均值計算。
例如:2016年PE / 2017-19年的盈利增長率
很多時候當 PEG > 1 時,就表示股價偏貴。
巿帳率:PB (Price to Book ratio)
巿帳率 = 股價 / 每股帳面值 帳面值 = 總資產 – 無形資產 – 負債
如果巿帳率 > 1 代表股價偏貴。
例如某間銀行股價是4元,而每股帳面值是8元
巿帳率 = 4 / 8 = 0.5,折讓甚大,可以留意一下。
要分析一間公司當然不能單用這些數據去決定買賣,亦要留意公司的狀況、現金流,也要運用巴菲特的3個M (Moat, Management, Margin of Safety)
如果市盈率過低可能反映市場對公司未來盈利能力的擔憂,而不僅僅是股價便宜,切記要留意。
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